The wheat complex is trading with strength early on Thursday. Wheat posted modest movement on Wednesday, with contracts mixed across the three exchanges and spring wheat the strongest. Chicago SRW futures were fractionally mixed across the front months. Preliminary open interest was down 5,221 contracts on Wednesday, with July down 17,095 contracts and September up 10,196. Kansas City HRW contracts was within a penny of unchanged on the session. Preliminary OI was down 3,368 contracts on Wednesday. Minneapolis spring wheat futures posted 3 to 4 cent gains on the session. 

The trade is looking for the 2024/25 marketing year to round out with net reductions of 100,000 to net sales of 500,000 MT in the week ending on June 5 (just 2 days for the old MY). New crop business is at 400,000 to 600,000 MT for estimates in the weekly Export Sales report. 

A Bloomberg survey of analysts shows expected wheat production ahead of Thursday's crop progress report to be up 3 mbu to 1.924 bbu. Much of that is likely going to come from the winter wheat crop which is expected to rise nearly 8 mbu to 1.389 bbu. The HRW crop is seen up 4 mbu to 755, with SRW 2 mbu higher to 346 and the white wheat crop steady at 253. Old crop wheat stocks are expected to be up 4 mbu to 845, with the new crop total up 2 to 925 mbu. For the world numbers, analysts are looking for old crop stocks down 0.3 MMT to 264.9 MMT. New crop is seen 0.7 MMT lower at 265 MMT on average.

Taiwan importers purchased 95,450 MT of US wheat in their tender overnight. Argentina wheat production is expected to total 20.7 MMT according to the Rosario Grains Exchange, down from the 21 MMT they previously estimated. EU and UK combined estimates for production are now 143.1 MMT according to Coceral, an increase of 5.9 MMT from their previous number. Strategie Grains estimates the EU crop at 130.7 MMT, up 0.9 MMT from their prior forecast

Jul 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.34 1/4, down 1/4 cent, currently up 1 3/4 cents

Sep 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.49, up 1/4 cent, currently up 1 3/4 cents

Jul 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.26 1/4, down 1 cent, currently up 2 cents

Sep 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.40 1/4, up 1/4 cent, currently up 2 cents

Jul 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.17 1/4, up 4 cents, currently up 6 1/4 cents

Sep 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.27 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents, currently up 7 1/4 cents