Corn price action leading up to the USDA reports later this morning is 2 to 3 cents higher. Futures were busy squaring up on Wednesday as the market ignored the US record large ethanol production number. Contracts closed with fractional to 1 ¾ cent losses. Prelimianry open interest showed a rotation of ownership, up just 199 contracts.  The front month CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was down 1 ¾ cents at $4.13 1/2.

The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production at a record 1.12 million barrels per day in the week of June 6. That was up 15,000 bpd from the week prior. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw of 706,000 barrels to 23.734 million barrels. Ethanol exports were 151,000 barrels per day, a slight increase from the week prior. Refiner inputs of ethanol were up 3,000 barrels per day to 905,000 bpd.

Weekly Export Sales data will be released shortly, with the trade looking for 0.7-1.2 MMT of 2024/25 corn sold in the week ending on June 5. New crop sales are estimated at 0-200,000 MT. 

Ahead of the monthly USDA reports, analysts are expecting to see old crop US ending stocks cut by 23 million bushels to 1.392 billion bushels. We will also get an updated new crop estimate, with the average trade guests according to a Bloomberg survey at 1.789 bbu, which is down 11 mbu from last month. Estimates for Brazil’s production total are 131.8 MMT, which would be up 1.8 MMT from last month if realized, with Argentina seen steady at 49.9 MMT.

CONAB data released this morning showed the Brazilian corn crop estimate at 128.25 MMT, a 1.38 MMT hike from the prior estimate on a 1.2 MMT increase to the second crop number

Jul 25 Corn  closed at $4.37, down 1 3/4 cents, currently up 2 1/2 cents

Nearby Cash  was $4.13 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents,

Sep 25 Corn  closed at $4.25 1/4, down 1/4 cent, currently up 2 1/4 cents

Dec 25 Corn  closed at $4.39 3/4, down 1/4 cent, currently up 2 1/4 cents

New Crop Cash  was $3.97 1/8, down 1/4 cent,